Back in July, the Japanese government had a great idea: replace those banned virus-ridden foreign tourists with nice Japanese ones. Japan was feeling pretty smug at the time—compared to other countries around the world, they were a major success story—and with the borders closed, felt safe from other countries’ catastrophic pandemic fate.
So the government launched the Go To Travel Campaign, which offered to foot half of domestic travel costs (transportation, hotels and shopping) up to ¥20,000 (about $200 USD) per person.
Wow! Unsurprisingly, people flocked to the participating travel agencies to take advantage.
Tokyo didn’t have many cases compared to other places in the world, but it still had tons more cases than anywhere else in Japan. It was quickly pointed out that encouraging people from Tokyo to rush home for the annual O-bon family visit (one of the busiest travel times of year anyway, sort of like Thanksgiving in the US) risked transporting COVID to areas mostly untouched by the virus, and—even worse—spreading it to the vulnerable elders they were there to visit.
Travel to and from Tokyo was quickly exempted from the promotion (causing a justifiable uproar, because lots of people had already snapped up the cheap tickets from Tokyo, and refunds were not so quickly forthcoming).
The virus was still in its first surge in Tokyo, and throughout July and August, a belatedly alarmed government warned people not to travel to their hometowns for O-bon. People grudgingly complied. Trains remained empty, family graves went unvisited.
The spike in Tokyo died down because so much of the populace wore masks and practiced other precautions. Heading into fall, Tokyo continued to be a huge success story compared to other world cities, so in October, the government lifted the ban on Tokyo travel for their Go To campaign.
And here’s what happened.
His comment reads:
“According to the Medical Association Chairman, the current round of infections isn’t due to nightlife and retaurants—it’s because of the Go To travel program. Household-based infections have increased dramatically! I hate to say it, but nightclubs, restaurants and bars have got it under control. Is he mistaken?”
Let’s look at the chart which compares mid-July infection percentages with current infection percentages. These figures represent positive test results from all over Japan (not just Tokyo)…
• Nightlife district-based infections (the early favorite in the blame game) dropped from 18.1% to 2.7% of the total.
• Restaurant-based infections (meeting your besties for lunch, drinking with your pals and going on that hot date) dropped from 13.2% to 8% of the total.
• Infections caught at home (from someone in your family/household) increased from 24.7% to 40.6% of the total.
• And infections in care homes for the elderly/infirm and hospitals increased from 5.3% to 18.8%.
Sort of a counterintuitive and puzzling pattern, right? But the head of the medical association figured out that once the Go To travel promotion was extended to Tokyo dwellers, savvy travelers made up for lost time and took full advantage. With cheap travel once again on the table, everybody took those delayed O-bon visits and returned to their hometowns all over Japan to see their relatives.
And suddenly, the main way people caught COVID shifted dramatically from eating and drinking and partying, to family gatherings and visits to elderly relatives in care homes.
As the big year-end family holidays speedily approach all over Europe, Scandinavia and the Americas, I hope Japan’s experience teaches us something about how to handle them. And how not to.
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Writing mystery books set in Tokyo is mostly what I do, but I also blog about the odd stuff I see every day in Japan. I'm a graduate of Stanford University and the Sendagaya Japanese Institute in Tokyo, and a member of the International Thriller Writers, the Mystery Writers of America, and Sisters In Crime. When I'm not in Tokyo, I live in San Francisco. I also host a travel site called The Tokyo Guide I Wish I'd Had, so if you're headed to Japan and want to check out the places I take my friends when they're in town, take a look!